Inflection Point for Crude Oil Tanker Market Yet to Come

first_imgzoom 2018 is not likely to be the turning point for the crude oil tanker market taking into account the anticipated fleet growth set to continue this year, distorting further the balance between supply and demand.A total of 58 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are scheduled to be delivered this year, although some of these are expected to be pushed to 2019, and further contracting has decreased when compared to 2017.This compares to 50 VLCCs delivered in 2017 and 47 in 2016.However, increased scrapping of older crude carriers has sparked some optimism with 13 VLCCs removed from the global fleet in 2017 and up to seven reported to be scrapped so far this year.“It will take some time until the crude oil tanker market has sufficiently absorbed new supply of vessels, despite the existence of factors that are evident in strong markets. The inflection point in the market has clearly not yet arrived, but when it is here and the right opportunities present themselves, we will be prepared to act,” Frontline said in its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2017.The Norwegian tanker owner has two more VLCCs pending delivery, with two VLCCs and one LR2/Aframax tanker delivered in January 2018.On the demand side, the world economy and crude oil demand remain strong. The oil supply growth has primarily come from the Atlantic Basin, whilst the demand growth is in Asia, which is positive for tonne-mile development, Frontline said.Nevertheless, the drawdown of crude inventories has pushed down the freight rates, negatively impacting the market.“While inventories remain elevated, days of forward demand cover has decreased sharply due to rising consumption, and we expect inventory draws to halt in the second quarter of 2018,” Frontline added.Speaking of the outlook, Frontline believes there will be opportunities going forward and the tanker owner says that it has the financial and commercial platform to grow its fleet when a beneficial opportunity arises.“Until then Frontline is sharply focused on maintaining our cost-efficient operations and low breakeven levels,” the shipowner concluded.last_img read more

Feedback Sought from Colorectal Cancer Patients

first_imgCancer Care Nova Scotia is asking for feedback on draft clinical standards for diagnosing and referring patients who have possible signs of colorectal cancer. Patients, survivors and their families are asked to review the draft standards and give feedback. Clinical standards give doctors and other health professionals information about how to diagnose and treat a disease based on the latest evidence. This includes types of tests and treatments, where they are done, and when they need to take place to ensure patients get high-quality care. Clinical standards also help patients know what to ask for, and expect, from the health system. “Patients and family doctors have told us that the process could be improved,” said Dr. Heather Johnson, a family doctor from Bridgewater, and chair of the working group that drafted the standards. “These standards are intended to provide family doctors and other health professionals with an improved process to ensure that every patient receives the necessary tests as quickly as possible. It also outlines the step-by-step process for referring a patient for treatment once a diagnosis is made.” Chris Collier, interim chief operating officer for Cancer Care Nova Scotia, said engaging patients and their families is key. “They offer important insights as members of our standards working groups and on the clinical standards oversight committee,” he said. “We also invite patients, survivors and their families to review each set of draft standards to ensure they address patient concerns.” Cancer survivors Archie MacEachern, of Sydney, and Robin McGee, of Kentville, are committee members. “As cancer survivors, our perspective is unique,” said Mr. MacEachern. “Patients and families provided insightful feedback on rectal cancer treatment standards and spoke of areas where improved patient education is needed. “I strongly encourage patients, survivors and family members of a loved one who has had colon cancer to consider sharing their thoughts on this.” The draft standards are available at www.cancercare.ns.ca/CRCstandards . The deadline for the online survey on the website is Oct. 13. There will also be focus groups in Halifax and Truro on Oct. 8, and in Sydney on Oct. 9. The deadline for registering is Oct. 3. Space is limited. Those interested in participating can call 1-866-599-2267. People who cannot provide feedback in these ways can call Sarah MacDonald, patient engagement co-ordinator, at 1-866-599-2267. Cancer Care Nova Scotia, a Department of Health and Wellness program, was created in 1998 to facilitate quality cancer prevention and care for all Nova Scotians.last_img read more

Hurricane Hardik powers MI to 1705 vs CSK

first_imgMumbai: Riding Hardik Pandya’s blitzkrieg, Mumbai Indians creamed 29 runs in the final over to reach 170 for five against Chennai Super Kings in the Indian Premier League here on Wednesday. Sent into bat, Suryakumar Yadav compiled a half century to lay the foundation for Mumbai Indians at the Wankhede Stadium. Before Hardik’s eight-ball 25 and Kieron Pollard’s seven-ball 17, Yadav stroked his way to 59 in 43 balls against the CSK attack that kept the MI batsmen on a tight least till the last few overs. Also Read – Puducherry on top after 8-wkt win over ChandigarhYadav, who hit eight fours and a six, also put on a half century stand with Krunal Pandya (42 in 32 balls) to revive MI’s floundering innings. Towards the end, Hardik and Pollard struck big to remain unbeaten and boosted the total with the former striking three sixes and one four and the latter hitting twice over the ropes. The founder of the helicopter shot, Mahendra Singh, watched from behind as Hardik used it to good effect. MI had a slow start and also lost the wicket of Quinton de Kock in the third over with only eight runs on the board. Also Read – Vijender’s next fight on Nov 22, opponent to be announced laterThe arrival of Yadav to the crease quickened the run rate as he played handsome drives in front of the wicket on both sides off Deepak Chahar, who he hit for three fours in one over, and Shardul Thakur, who gave away three boundaries in his second over. Thanks to the stroke-filled start by Yadav, MI ended with 40 on the board at the end of power play, but then lost skipper Rohit Sharma off the first ball of the eighth over, caught behind off Ravindra Jadeja for 13. Yuvraj Singh, too, flopped, caught just inside the boundary line to leave MI at 50 for three in the ninth over. Yadav and Krunal revived the sagging innings with a stand of 62 in 49 balls for the fourth wicket. The latter struck two successive fours off Mohit Sharma to push up the run rate but was lucky to be let off at 17 off Dwayne Bravo in the 13th over. Krunal successfully reviewed a leg before decision given against him off Shardul Thakur after adding a run to his score. Emboldened, the left hander lofted Tahir over long on for the first six of the innings, in the 15th over, at the end of which MI were 93 for three. Krunal was finally caught at long off, miscuing while trying to hit Mohit Sharma for the third four in the 17th over. He struck five fours and a six in his 32-ball knock. Brief score: Mumbai Indians 170/5 (Suryakumar Yadav 59, Krunal Pandya 42; Ravindra Jadeja 1/10) vs CSK.last_img read more

Enbridge natural gas pipeline ruptures in Ohio reports of two injured

Companies in this story: (TSX:ENB)The Canadian Press CALGARY — Enbridge Inc. says two people have been injured and two structures damaged in a natural gas pipeline rupture in Ohio.The company says it has activated its emergency response plan and personnel are responding to the incident in Noble County, Ohio.Local reports said the pipeline explosion on Enbridge’s Texas Eastern natural gas pipeline sent a fireball into in the sky.Enbridge says the fire has been contained and residents near the incident have been evacuated.It says the pipeline was built in the early 1950s and that it had an in-line inspection in 2012.The explosion is the second in just over a month for the company, whose East Tennessee pipeline ruptured in mid-December. read more

Darfur conflict claimed more than 200 lives in June UNAfrican mission reports

The clashes between the Rizeigat and Misseriya tribes claimed nearly 140 lives last month, but the peacekeeping mission, known as UNAMID, said that no further fighting has been reported since the groups signed a peace accord on 28 June. In the past seven years an estimated 300,000 people have been killed and 2.7 million others have been displaced as a result of fighting between rebels and Government forces backed by allied Janjaweed militiamen in Darfur. All sides are accused of serious human rights violations. UNAMID, has been in place since the start of 2008, succeeding an earlier AU-only mission in the war-torn region. Its headquarters are in the North Darfur state capital of El Fasher. In a related development, the mission today presented football equipment to leaders from three camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) for an inter-community youth tournament. The competition seeks to empower the region’s youth by inspiring them to shun violence and channeling their energies towards uniting communities, rather than dividing them. Hassan Gibril, head of UNAMID’s North Darfur office, praised the leaders of the IDP camps for being “ambassadors of peace in [their] communities,” as well as for working with the mission “in the search for lasting peace and enduring security in Darfur.” Dozens of teams from the three camps took part in the preliminary level of the tournament, with 6 teams – two from each site – will compete in the finals which kick off on Tuesday. 11 July 2010The joint African Union-United Nations peacekeeping mission in Darfur today reported that 221 people lost their lives in the war-torn Sudanese region due to armed conflict and criminality in June, the vast majority of deaths being attributed to inter-tribal fighting. read more

UN political official leaves for Nepal to build on recent positive steps

Tamrat Samuel of the UN Department for Political Affairs will visit the mountain kingdom following the 24 April proclamation of by King Gyanendra to reinstate the legislative body, along with the reciprocation by the government formed by the reinstated parliament of a three-month unilateral ceasefire previously announced by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has been calling for the restoration of “democratic freedoms and institutions” ever since the King dissolved parliament, imposed a state of emergency and suspended civil liberties in February 2005, citing the threat of the Maoist rebellion.When the seven-party alliance of political opponents of the Government called for protests early last month to restore the democratic institutions, the Government banned demonstrations in the capital, Katmandu, and reportedly arrested many opponents. Weeks of mass demonstrations throughout the country ensued, along with reportedly violent reactions – in many cases, from police and armed forces – that UN human rights monitors say resulted in multiple fatalities. read more

Canadian dollar lower traders avoid risk following Greek elections

by Malcolm Morrison, The Canadian Press Posted May 10, 2012 4:31 pm MDT AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to RedditRedditShare to 電子郵件Email Canadian dollar lower, traders avoid risk following Greek elections TORONTO – The Canadian dollar closed lower Thursday as traders continued to shun risk in the wake of elections in Greece last weekend that failed to produce a winner.The commodity-sensitive currency failed to benefit from rising prices for oil and metals, dipping 0.08 of a cent to 99.83 cents US. It had earlier run as high as 100.23 cents.Traders also took in the latest snapshot on the country’s trade performance which, while improving month-over-month, came in slightly below expectations.Statistics Canada reported that the trade surplus increased from $273 million in February to $351 million in March. Exports edged down 0.4 per cent while imports decreased 0.6 per cent during the month.“The fall in two-way trade suggests that even after soft activity in February, there wasn’t much of a snap-back in trade in March,” observed CIBC World Markets economist Emanuella Enenajor.The currency has lost almost a full US cent over the past three days as traders avoided riskier assets such as commodities and resource-based currencies like the loonie.Markets were nervous Thursday as talks to form a Greek government dragged into a fourth day after no party won enough votes to form an administration.Analysts expect these talks will go nowhere and that Greeks will go back to the polls in June.There are some hopes in the markets that in new elections some Greeks who want the country to remain in the euro currency bloc will support the main pro-euro parties, facilitating the creation of a moderate coalition government.In the meantime, Greece is being held together by an international bailout. And analysts warn that Greece could run out of money as soon as next month without a government to negotiate the next level of its bailout.Meanwhile, the June crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 27 cents to US$97.08. Greek uncertainty and worries about slowing economic conditions have pushed oil down sharply from US$106 at the beginning of this month.Copper prices were up three cents to US$3.69. Demand concerns had pushed the metal down almost five per cent from May 1.Bullion prices gained $1.30 to US$1,595.50 an ounce.Traders also took in Chinese data showing slower than expected exports and imports in April, which raised fears the world’s second-biggest economy wasn’t doing enough to stimulate domestic demand amid an economic slowdown.Imports edged up 0.3 per cent to US$144.8 billion in April while exports rose 4.9 per cent to $163.3 billion, leaving a surplus of $18.4 billion, according to customs data released Thursday.That compared with a surplus of $5.35 billion in March and a deficit of $31.5 billion in February.China has been an important prop for a global economy still in the midst of a fragile recovery from the 2008 financial collapse and subsequent recession. Its huge appetite for energy and metals has boosted commodity prices and oil and mining stocks on the TSX. read more

Business Report with Mike Eppel

Dec. 14: Senior business editor Mike Eppel discusses Chinese stock markets’ reaction to positive manufacturing news. business news|business report|mike eppel|tsx AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to RedditRedditShare to 電子郵件Email by News Staff Posted Dec 14, 2012 9:31 am MDT Business Report with Mike Eppel

Obama says dangers are real in debate over encryption

AUSTIN, Texas – President Barack Obama sided with law enforcement Friday in the debate pitting encryption and personal privacy against national security, arguing that authorities need access to data on electronic devices because the “dangers are real.”Appearing at an annual tech festival in the Texas capital, Obama delivered his most extensive comments to date on an issue being played out in federal court. Apple, one of the world’s largest technology companies, is challenging the government’s request that it help the FBI access data on a cellphone that was used in the San Bernardino, California, attack that killed 14 people.The issue has roiled the tech industry and divided Obama’s advisers, but the president seemed to side Friday with law enforcement despite also saying the matter would not be settled by adopting an “absolutist view.”Obama restated his commitment to strong encryption but also raised the question of how would authorities catch child pornographers or disrupt terrorist plots if smartphones and other electronic devices are designed in ways that keep the data on them locked away forever.“My conclusion so far is that you cannot take an absolutist view on this,” Obama said. “So if your argument is strong encryption, no matter what, and we can and should, in fact, create black boxes, then that I think does not strike the kind of balance that we have lived with for 200, 300 years.“And it’s fetishizing our phones above every other value. And that can’t be the right answer,” he said.At the end of a nearly hourlong, question-and-answer session with Evan Smith, CEO and editor in chief of The Texas Tribune, Smith asked the president “where do you come down” on the privacy versus security debate. He was not asked to comment on the dispute with Apple.Obama said government shouldn’t be able to “just willy nilly” access smartphones that are full of very personal data. But at the same time, while asserting that he’s “way on the civil liberties side,” Obama said “there has to be some concession” to be able to get the information in certain cases.Apple and the federal government are embroiled in a legal fight over Apple’s refusal to help the FBI access the iPhone used in San Bernardino. The FBI has been unable on its own to unlock the phone and wants Apple to create a program specifically for that phone to help the bureau get to the data on it. But Apple has refused, and says that to do what the government is asking would set a terrible precedent.Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., who has sharply questioned FBI Director James Comey during congressional hearings on the matter, released a statement in which he said Obama’s comments showed his “fundamental lack of understanding of the tech community, the complexities of encryption and the importance of privacy to our safety in an increasingly digital world.”Issa said the solution, or key, that the government wants Apple to create could eventually compromised.“There’s just no way to create a special key for government that couldn’t also be taken advantage of by the Russians, the Chinese or others who want access to the sensitive information we all carry in our pockets every day,” Issa said.Obama used his appearance at the decades-old festival to encourage the audience of tech enthusiasts to step forward and use their skills and imagination to “tackle big problems in new ways.” He said the administration already is using technology to make people’s lives better, and cited as an example the streamlining of federal applications. Offering up a problem in need of a solution, he urged industry leaders and entrepreneurs to use technology to help increase voter participation.“The reason I’m here, really, is to recruit all of you. It’s to say to you, as I’m about to leave office, how can we start coming up with new platforms and new ideas, new approaches across disciplines and across skill sets, to solve some of the big problems that we’re facing today.”South by Southwest Interactive is part of South by Southwest, a movie, music and interactive media festival that has been held in Austin for the past 30 years. Obama’s appearance at the festival was the first by a sitting U.S. president.After the festival, which also is known as SXSW, Obama helped raise money for Democrats at a pair of fundraisers in Austin.___Follow Darlene Superville on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/dsupervilleap Obama says ‘dangers are real’ in debate over encryption by Darlene Superville, The Associated Press Posted Mar 11, 2016 2:27 pm MDT Last Updated Mar 11, 2016 at 9:00 pm MDT AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to RedditRedditShare to 電子郵件Email President Barack Obama, center, waves to members of the audience after answering question from Evan Smith, left, CEO / Editor in Chief of The Texas Tribune, at the South by Southwest Festival (SXSW) at the Center for Performing Arts in Austin, Texas, Friday, March 11, 2016. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) read more

Latin America Caribbean job market faces scenario of uncertainty in 2015 –

According to the Panorama Laboral de América Latina y el Caribe 2014 (Labour Overview for Latin America and the Caribbean 2014) launched today in Mexico, the region’s urban unemployment rate may reach 6.3 per cent in 2015, which means that there will be some 500,000 more without jobs.”There are warning signs,” said Elizabeth Tinoco, the ILO’s regional director as she introduced the report in Mexico City. “The concern is that we are creating fewer jobs despite unemployment remaining at a low level,” she added.Although unemployment has not risen due to this slowdown in growth, there has been a sharp reduction of new jobs reflected in the employment rate, which fell by 0.4 percentage points to 55.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2014. “This means that at least one million [fewer] jobs have been created,” Tinoco said.This “scenario of uncertainty” comes after a decade in which the region enjoyed significant economic growth. The unemployment rate dipped to record lows and allowed for a higher quality of jobs.The urban unemployment rate of young people dropped from 14.5 per cent to 14 per cent but still remains between 2 and 4 times higher than that for adults. What’s more, the unemployment rate for women is 30 per cent higher than that for men, and 47 per cent of urban workers work in the informal economy. “Many people who temporarily left the workforce in 2014 will return to search for a job next year, together with young people entering the labour market. The region will have to create nearly 50 million jobs over the coming decade, just to offset demographic growth,” Tinoco said.“We are talking about almost 15 million people unemployed,” she said.“So we have to face the huge challenge of rethinking strategies to push growth and a productive transformation of the economy to foster economic and social inclusion through the labour market,” Tinoco said.The ILO is calling on countries in the region to prepare for the possibility of a labour market which has to take specific measures to stimulate employment and protect individual incomes. read more

Buckeye pitching staff helps Ohio State baseball ice Marshall 40

Redshirt-sophomore infielder Ryan Leffel (12) hits the ball during a game against Xavier March 19 at Bill Davis Stadium. OSU won, 10-3.Credit: Sam Harrington / Lantern photographerDespite cold weather still being a concern, the Ohio State baseball team came out hot against Marshall.The Buckeyes (16-7, 2-1) used strong pitching to keep the Thundering Herd (6-16, 3-6) as cold as the temperature was Wednesday, winning 4-0.After having to reschedule the game because of snow Tuesday, the teams took the field with the day’s high temperature in the mid-30s.Although the weather wasn’t what OSU had wanted, coach Greg Beals was happy the team could still play.“It wasn’t ideal baseball conditions, but our guys stayed on task and kept things rolling,” Beals said after the win.The starting duel featured a pair of lefties from Ohio in the Buckeyes’ freshman Zach Farmer and the Thundering Herd’s sophomore Alex Thackston.That battle didn’t last long, though.After a scoreless first, Thackston gave up a leadoff single to redshirt-junior Josh Dezse and followed by walking freshman Ronnie Dawson. After a wild pitch advanced the runners, freshman outfielder Troy Montgomery popped an RBI single to shallow right and abruptly ended Thackston’s day as he was taken out by Marshall coach Jeff Waggoner.Later in the inning, while Montgomery was caught in a pickle, Dawson stole home to give the Buckeyes a two-run lead.Meanwhile, Farmer stymied the Thundering Herd bats, giving up only one hit in five innings while striking out six.The only real danger Farmer faced was in the fifth, when he had a runner in scoring position with no outs. He responded with three strikeouts to end the threat.After being replaced on the weekend rotation by fellow freshman Tanner Tully, Farmer was happy to get back in the groove of things.“It felt real good bouncing back and getting my stuff down,” Farmer said. “When guys got on (in the fifth) I got a little worried, but I tried to stay calm and throw what I got.”Sophomore infielder Jacob Bosiokovic added to the lead with an RBI double in the fifth and a sacrifice fly in the seventh to end the scoring on the day.Though only four runs were scored, the Buckeye offense kept pressure on the Thundering Herd all game and forced them to use eight pitchers, compared to just three for OSU.“As a team, we want to try to score, obviously, many runs, but it’s important to compete every at-bat, never let up and push on the gas pedal when we can.” Bosiokovic said.The Buckeye pitching staff didn’t have nearly the same problem defensively as redshirt-senior Tyler Giannonatti and junior Trace Dempsey both pitched two scoreless innings to preserve the win for Farmer. Overall, the Thundering Herd could only muster three hits.“Our pitching staff is throwing the ball really well,” Beals said. “The last 27 innings we’ve pitched we’ve given up (two runs). You do that, you’re going to win a lot of baseball games. We’ve got confidence.”The Buckeyes are going to need the strong pitching to continue into the weekend as reigning Big Ten champion Indiana comes to Columbus for a three-game series.First pitch at Bill Davis Stadium at Nick Swisher Field is scheduled for Friday at 6:35 p.m. read more

Ohio State basketball to make second international appearance in Bahamas

Thad Matta stands on the sidelines during a game against Minnesota. OSU won, 64-46.Credit: Ritika Shah / Asst. photo editorCoach Thad Matta and the Ohio State men’s basketball team are gearing up for a trip to the Bahamas, where they will take part in two exhibition matches.Last season, the Buckeyes’ run ended in the second round of the NCAA tournament with a 60-59 loss to the Dayton Flyers.Following the 2013 season, the Buckeyes lost guards Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr. to graduation, forward LaQuinton Ross to the NBA draft and guard Amedeo Della Valle to the European professional league.Craft and Ross, neither of whom were selected in the NBA draft, saw action in the NBA Summer League, as Craft suited up for the Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors while Ross took the court for the Los Angeles Lakers.During the offseason, the Buckeyes were able to add two transfers, forward Anthony Lee and center Trevor Thompson, to the roster.Lee, the 6-foot-9, 230-pound Temple graduate started 27 games last season with 13.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game and a .495 field goal percentage.Lee said Matta was the reason why he transferred to Ohio State and added, “I know I have the opportunity to win a possible championship, and so I wanted to be a part of that.”Thompson, a Virginia Tech transfer, will not make the trip with the team and is awaiting word on whether or not he will be eligible for the rest of the season. Last year the 6-foot-11, 210-pound freshman forward averaged 5.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game before transferring to Ohio State.During the Buckeyes’ final practice before making the trip to the Bahamas, senior forward Sam Thompson applauded the attitudes and work ethic of the new recruiting class.“They all came in ready work and willing to learn from some of the older guys, so anytime you have guys coming into your program with that kind of attitude it’s a great experience,” Thompson said.Sophomore forward Marc Loving and senior guard Shannon Scott also commented on the improvements and expectations the offense has going forward into this season.“I think our offense is going to take a really big step then what it was last year, but we’re not going to let that change our defense,” Scott said.“Everyone can spread the floor, everyone can create their own shot and create for others, it’s going to be hard for teams to guard us,” Loving added.The Buckeyes leave Columbus on Tuesday morning and will play the Bahamas All Stars on Aug. 7 at 9 p.m. and the Providence Storm on Aug. 8 at 7 p.m. read more

FiveThirtyEights College Football Playoff Forecast

Which teams are most likely to make college football’s first-ever four-team playoff? And which have the best chance of coming away with the national title?The quick answer is the obvious one: The Alabama Crimson Tide lead the way on both counts. They’re No. 1 in the playoff selection committee’s current rankings and No. 1 according to most computer systems, including ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Alabama is no stranger to postseason success, having won the national title in 2009, 2011 and 2012.But it won’t be easy for Alabama, or anyone else. To win the national title, the Crimson Tide may need to prevail in four very challenging football games — against arch-rival Auburn on Nov. 29, in the SEC Championship on Dec. 6, and then in the national semifinal and championship games. Alabama is more likely than any other team to win the title, but its chances are still only about 28 percent.That number comes from a new model we’ve developed that simulates the rest of the college football season and considers how subsequent games might affect the playoff committee’s rankings. The model is speculative: Statistical models are grounded in history and there’s zero history to go by when it comes to the college football playoff. But we hope to have some fun with it over the next few weeks and use this season as a guide for how to improve it in future years.The key characteristics of the model are that it’s iterative and probabilistic.1In contrast to our usual 10,000-word manifesto when launching a new forecasting model, I’m only going to provide a brief description of it for now. We’ll circle back later on with more detail. By iterative, I mean that it simulates the rest of the college season one game and one week at a time instead of jumping directly from the current playoff committee standings to national championship chances. By probabilistic, I mean that it hopes to account for the considerable uncertainty in the playoff picture, both in terms of how the games will turn out and in how the humans on the selection committee might react to them.Games are simulated using ESPN’s Football Power Index. To take one example, FPI has USC with about a 40 percent chance of upsetting UCLA in the game they’ll play Saturday in Pasadena, California.The next question is how the teams’ standings in the playoff rankings might change given the possible outcomes on the field. We’ve principally used the historic record of the Coaches Poll for guidance. The simulations account for the fact that some wins and losses matter more than others.Let’s say that USC wins. It’s currently ranked No. 19 in the playoff committee’s rankings. On average in the Coaches Poll, teams ranked in that position have moved up to only No. 17 or No. 16 after a win.Our model sees more upside potential for USC, however. A victory for the Trojans would come in what is technically a road game for them (a few freeways away from their campus in Los Angeles). More importantly, it would come against a higher-ranked opponent in UCLA. Historically — and quite reasonably — human raters have given more credit to wins like those, so our simulation would have USC moving up to No. 15 or No. 14 on average if it wins instead. But there’s considerable uncertainty in the outcome. We have USC moving as high as No. 10, or even into the high single digits, in some simulations; in other cases, a number of other teams ranked near it in the standings might have impressive wins also, and USC would barely move up at all.The simulations also account for the potential margin of victory in each game. Voters in the coaches and media polls have mostly looked at wins and losses, but our research suggests they give a little bit more credit to especially lopsided victories or especially close ones.USC, although an interesting case for the model, is almost no threat to win the national championship no matter the scoreline in Pasadena. Even if it beats UCLA this week and Notre Dame next week — and wins the tiebreaker for the Pac-12 title and then wins that game against Oregon as well, it will be coming from too far behind. Our simulation gives the Trojans only a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoff.Other teams have a more credible chance of contending. Take Mississippi State. On the positive side for the Bulldogs, four teams will get into the playoff and they’re currently ranked No. 4. But Mississippi State has more downside than upside scenarios. It will almost certainly be out if it loses against No. 8 Mississippi — a game in which FPI has the Rebels favored. And even if Mississippi State wins that game, it won’t advance to the SEC Championship unless Alabama loses to Auburn. If Alabama wins, the Bulldogs would be denied another chance to impress the committee. Thus, our simulation has Mississippi State with just a 27 percent chance of making the playoff.These permutations can get complicated, which is why it helps to take things one week at a time. What might the playoff committee standings look like after this Saturday’s games, for instance? The heat map you see below reflects our model’s effort to account for all the possibilities:The top four probably won’t look much different when the playoff committee releases its new standings on Tuesday. They all have fairly easy marks: Alabama will play a Division I-AA opponent, Western Carolina. No. 2 Oregon is at home against 2-8 Colorado. No. 3 Florida State is heavily favored at home against Boston College. And Mississippi State is also at home, playing Vanderbilt, the worst team in the SEC.There’s more action outside the top four. I already mentioned the high-leverage game in Pasadena. If you look carefully at the chart, you’ll see that USC’s probability distribution is bimodal. In other words, it probably won’t stay at No. 19, where it is now. If it beats UCLA, it could gain several positions in the rankings; if it loses, it will have taken its fourth loss and might be knocked out of the top 25 entirely.USC’s opponent, UCLA, also has a lot on the line. UCLA would need a lot of help, but it still has an outside chance — our model puts it at 8 percent — of making the playoff. Beating both USC and Stanford would give UCLA an entry into the Pac-12 championship game. If it beat Oregon then, and a team or two ahead of it endures a loss, it could get in.We might compare the Trojans against their Hellenic-themed rivals, the Michigan State Spartans. Not that MSU, already having lost twice, had much chance to begin with (it pains me to say that as an East Lansing High School alum). But the Spartans are a good example of a team that just doesn’t have enough opportunities to impress committee voters even under its best-case outcomes. MSU’s only remaining scheduled games are against unranked Rutgers and Penn State — and it will only make the Big Ten Championship game if it wins twice and Ohio State loses twice.The Georgia Bulldogs, by comparison, despite being just one position ahead of Michigan State in the rankings, have a better hand to play. They’ll make the SEC Championship if Missouri loses either of its remaining games. If Georgia makes the conference title game and beats Alabama, it would give committee members a lot to think about.Here’s how our model sees the potential lay of the land on Dec. 7, when the selection committee will release its final rankings:As you can see, playing out three weeks’ worth of games increases the uncertainty a great deal as compared to just this coming weekend’s outcomes. No team is more than 75 percent certain to make the playoff.Florida State, despite being undefeated and No. 1 in the Coaches Poll, is not all that well positioned. The selection committee has it at No. 3, which implies that a loss would probably knock it out of contention. FPI, along with other computer systems, is not high on the Seminoles, who have won by middling margins against a so-so schedule.Oregon’s position is better. The Ducks will probably have to win out also, but they’ve already survived the tougher parts of their schedule. Oregon has been good enough, in fact, to make duck-hunting an appealing proposition; UCLA’s outside shot of making the playoff relies upon the possibility of beating it in the Pac-12 Championship.Our simulation also accounts for what might happen beyond Dec. 7. Here are the teams most likely to win the national championship, according to our model:A few teams might be overlooked in the title hunt. Although none of its teams ranks in the top four now, the Big 12 is more likely than not to advance one team (TCU or Baylor) into the playoff. Ohio State’s position as a potential one-loss winner of a major conference will start to look better if any teams ahead of it slip. Ole Miss is a longshot to make the playoff — it will have to beat Mississippi State and perhaps hope that Alabama loses also so that it can get into the SEC Championship — but it’s at the top of the pecking order as far as two-loss teams go.There’s still a lot that these simulations aren’t accounting for. There’s no mechanism in the model to account for head-to-head results even though the committee has said it will consider them if the standings are otherwise close. That potentially works to the benefit of Alabama, which might finish close to Mississippi State in the standings if it loses to Auburn or in the SEC Championship, but which beat the Bulldogs in Tuscaloosa last week.The selection committee may also place more emphasis on conference championships than the simulations do. But we have no evidence yet for how that might play out — nor for how resistant the committee might be to choosing two or more teams from the same conference. We hope you’ll join us as we sort through the scenarios.CORRECTION (Nov. 22, 3:20 p.m.): An earlier version of this article misstated the division in which Western Carolina plays. It is not Division II, but the Football Championship Subdivision, formerly known as Division I-AA. read more

Police pursuit deaths at highest level for a decade

Phill Matthews of the Police Federation said: “Police last year carried out at least 13,000 pursuits and eight million response drives- therefore these figures represent a tiny proportion, with the majority of drives being safely completed; reflecting just how high the standard of police driver training is.” The number of people killed during high speed police chases reached its highest level for a decade last year, it has emerged.A total of 30 people died during police pursuits, almost double the previous year when 17 were killed.A third of those who were died were innocent motorists or pedestrians, who were not involved in the pursuit itself, according to figures collected by the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC).According to the statistics there were 33 fatal police related road traffic incidents resulting in the deaths of 42 people.While some of those were straight forward road traffic accidents, a high proportion were as a result of high speed pursuits.Twelve of the 30 who died during pursuits, were driving the car being followed, while eight were passengers in the suspect vehicle.But seven of those killed were the drivers or passengers of unrelated vehicles that were hit by the car being pursued by the police.Three more were pedestrians who died after being struck by the suspect vehicle.Five people were killed when a police car responding to an emergency call crashed.The oldest victim of a road traffic incident involving police was a 93-year-old woman pedestrian, who appeared to fall in the road in “very close proximity” to a force van on general patrol. Want the best of The Telegraph direct to your email and WhatsApp? Sign up to our free twice-daily  Front Page newsletter and new  audio briefings. read more

Guyana surpasses forestry target for 2017 Trotman

Government has recorded a production of 345,000 cubic meters in the local forestry sector, surpassing the target of 297,070 cubic meters set for 2017.Natural Resources Minister Raphael TrotmanNatural Resources Minister Raphael Trotman made this announcement at a press conference today, while stating that a revised growth rate may be necessary.With the implementation of a log export policy and greater focus on value added this year, as well as the signing of the REDD+ Readiness Process Contract, the Minister said production will most likely be increased.The new target set for 2018 is 400,000 cubic meters.The increase in production is expected to aid the forestry sector which recorded a 15 per cent decline in earnings in 2016. Share this:Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)RelatedFirst quarter 2018: 145,133 ounces of gold declared- TrotmanApril 30, 2018In “Business”Govt’s housing drive to use Lesser Used Species of wood to cut costsMay 16, 2017In “Business”163,000 ounces of gold declared for first quarterApril 18, 2017In “Business” read more

Herdeiro Lucau joins IFK Kristianstad

Herdeiro LucauIFK KristianstadSwedish handball Swedish goalkeeper, Herdeiro Lucau (25) has decided to join ambitious project of home team IFK Kristianstad. He has played for Amaya Sport – former Portland San Antonio, the team who is relegated to the second Spanish League due weak financial situation. Before Amaya Sport, Lucau was member of VfL Gummersbach. ← Previous Story Kim Andersson thinks about home – IFK Kristianstad! Next Story → Joachim Boldsen leaving AG?

Up to eight believed dead in Colorado flooding

first_imgTHE RAINS FINALLY stopped, allowing many Colorado flood evacuees to return home to toppled houses and upended vehicles with the realisation that rebuilding their lives will take months.Search crews, meanwhile, rescued hundreds more people stranded by floodwaters.Local residents, left to right, Levi Wolfe, Miranda Woodard, Tyler Sadar, and Genevieve Marquez help salvage and clean property in Hygiene, Colorado. Pic: AP Photo/Brennan LinsleyAs many as eight people were believed to be dead, according to state officials, and hundreds were still missing. But that number has been decreasing.The state’s count fell yesterday from just more than 1,200 to about half that. Officials hoped the number of missing would continue declining as rescuers continued working and those stranded got in touch with families.After days of heavy rain, clearing skies and receding waters allowed crews to intensify their search efforts and assess the damage of the historic floods.Twenty-one helicopters fanned out over the mountainsides and the plains to drop supplies and airlift those who needed help.A house lays completely demolished in what was the path of the recent floods that have destroyed the town of Jamestown. Pic: AP Photo/ The Denver Post, Helen H RichardsonResidents of Hygiene, a small community east of the Rocky Mountain foothills, returned home Monday to find homes destroyed and mud blanketing roads. The St Vrain Creek left trucks in ditches and carried items as far as 2 miles downstream.“My own slice of heaven, and it’s gone,” Bill Marquedt said of his home.Residents set to sweeping, shoveling and rinsing, but the rebuilding task was overwhelming.“What now? We don’t even know where to start,” said Genevieve Marquez. “It’s not even like a day by day or a month thing.”“I want to think that far ahead but it’s a minute by minute thing at this point,” she added.What looks like a river in fact used to be the front and back yards of the residents of these homes in Jamestown. Pic: AP Photo/ The Denver Post, Helen H. RichardsonState emergency officials offered a first glimpse at the scope of the damage, with counties reporting about 19,000 homes either damaged or destroyed.Those preliminary figures are certain to change as the waters continue to recede and roads are cleared to allow crews to access more areas.Air crews rescued more than 100 people in Larimer County yesterday. Once the evacuations end, officials said it could take weeks or even months to search through flood-ravaged areas looking for people who died.In the mountain towns, major roads were washed away or covered by mud and rock slides. Hamlets like Glen Haven were reduced to debris and key infrastructure like gas lines and sewers systems were destroyed.Miranda Woodard, left, and Joey Schendel help salvage and clean property. Pic: AP Photo/Brennan LinsleyHundreds of homes around Estes Park, next to Rocky Mountain National Park, could be unreachable and uninhabitable for up to a year, town administrator Frank Lancaster said.The town of Lyons was almost completely abandoned. Emergency crews gave the few remaining residents, mostly wandering Main Street looking for status updates, a final warning to leave.Most of Lyons’ trailer parks were completely destroyed. One angry man was throwing his possessions one by one into the river rushing along one side of his trailer on Sunday, watching the brown water carry them away while he drank a beer.Read: Death toll in Colorado floods rises to four>last_img read more

UPDATE ILWU lockout at Port of Vancouver continues

first_img A sense of anticipation and dread settled over the standoff between United Grain Corp. and union dockworkers at the Port of Vancouver on Thursday, with the company’s managers taking on cargo-handling duties as locked-out union members expected replacement workers to be brought in soon from out of state.The ripple effects of the tense situation — touched off after United Grain accused a local union member of sabotaging its equipment, fired the person and then froze out up to 44 dockworkers Wednesday — were many. They included plans by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union to lodge a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board; an investigation launched by Vancouver police into United Grain’s allegations of sabotage against the union worker; and a move by the port to keep picketers and property safe.The fallout comes after the union and three of four Pacific Northwest terminal grain operators failed to reach an agreement over a new labor contract after the current one expired at the end of September.Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s office said Thursday the governor is closely monitoring the situation and plans to reach out to the parties soon.While such labor disputes aren’t unusual on the West Coast, the last one to roil the region’s ports occurred in 2002, according to Larry Paulson, the former longtime executive director of the Port of Vancouver. “Huge financial losses,” Paulson said of the controversy 11 years ago in a phone interview Thursday. “Hard on everyone.” ILWU workers picket for a second day in front of the Port of Vancouver’s Gate 2 Thursday February 28, 2013 in Vancouver, Washington.last_img read more

Cast of AntMan and the Wasp celebrate premiere

first_img(WSVN) – Marvel mania is still in full effect. First the studio released “Black Panther,” then “Avengers: Infinity War.” Now, they’re bringing us “Ant-Man and the Wasp.”It was a star-studded affair at the premiere in Los Angeles, Monday night.Michael Douglas stopped for selfies.And actor Paul Rudd, who plays the Ant-Man himself, couldn’t contain his excitement about the rest of the world finally getting to see the movie.“This is an incredible thing,” said Rudd. “We’ve worked on it for so long and now that we’re finally here, I’m nothing but appreciative and excited.”“Ant-Man and the Wasp” is out in theaters on July 6.Copyright 2019 Sunbeam Television Corp. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.last_img read more

Newsweek Auction Gets More Political

first_imgWho knew the California Congressional race would spill over into the world of magazine M&A? Well, it has.Earlier this month, Mattie Fein, a Republican candidate for the 36th district in California, wrote an open letter to Newsweek managing editor Jon Meacham questioning the relationship between audio equipment magnate Sydney Harman (who is said to be one of the players bidding for Newsweek) his wife, Democratic California Congresswoman Jane Harman, and her co-ownership of Harman International, which she says does business with Iran. Fein’s letter goes on to say that if Harman acquires Newsweek, his wife would “be in the catbird’s seat controlling the news magazine’s reporting or editorializing because she owns millions of dollars of its stock,” and would “exert her ownership leverage to divert Newsweek’s investigative reporting away from government wrongdoing that could be politically embarrassing to her.” Fein is campaigning against Jane Harman for her seat representing California’s 36th district.Now, two and a half weeks later, Fein has issued a public statement calling further attention to Harman’s “influence on Newsweek” and, essentially, her own campaign. Fein says Newsweek and Harman both have been “mute” concerning her claims.“Managing Editor Meacham has been missing in action regarding Harman’s potential for diverting Newsweek from investigative reporting into a political mouthpiece for the her political agenda,” Fein says in the statement. “Meacham’s silence on the Iran-Jane Harman issue begs the question, ‘Why?’ It is not because of the absence of newsworthiness. Newsweek has written recently about the re-defection of an Iranian nuclear scientist and Iranian political schisms. Perhaps Jane Harman’s influence has already begun.”Jane Harman’s camp has not posted any statement in reaction to Fein’s claims on its Web site.Newsweek owner the Washington Post Co. put the magazine up for sale in May. In addition to Harman, Fred Drasner—a former partner of Mort Zuckerman who helped negotiate his deals for the Daily News, Atlantic Monthly and Fast Company—and TV Guide owner OpenGate Capital are among those believed to have placed bids, which were due July 1.At the time, a Washington Post spokesperson said a decision concerning the sale wasn’t expect for several weeks. When contacted by FOLIO: today, the spokesperson said there is “nothing new to report.”last_img read more